Appendix D — Paper Template

D.1 Purpose

This appendix provides a complete template for the final region-specific gravity paper. Replace placeholders with the student’s own region, dataset, estimates, tables, and interpretation. Do not invent results before estimation is complete.

D.2 Title Page

Title: [Institutional Variable] and Bilateral Trade in [Region]: Gravity Evidence from [Years]

Author: [Student Name]

Course: NREC6006 - International Trade

Date: [Submission Date]

Replication base: Post-Soviet gravity workflow translated to Python

D.3 Abstract

Suggested length: 150-200 words.

Template:

This paper studies whether [policy or institution] is associated with bilateral trade among [region] countries during [years]. Using a dyad-year gravity dataset built from [data sources], the paper estimates baseline OLS, fixed-effects OLS, PPML, and robustness specifications. The main dependent variable is [trade flow measure]. The core institutional variable is [policy variable]. Results show that [brief findings placeholder]. The analysis contributes to applied trade research by linking a reproducible Python workflow to a region-specific policy question.

D.4 Keywords

Use 4-6 keywords.

Suggested format:

gravity model; international trade; [region]; [institution]; PPML; Python replication

D.5 Introduction

Suggested length: 800-1,000 words.

The introduction should answer four questions:

  1. What policy or trade problem motivates the paper?
  2. What is the research question?
  3. What is the empirical contribution?
  4. What are the main findings?

Suggested structure:

  • Paragraph 1: Regional or policy motivation.
  • Paragraph 2: Why bilateral trade is the right outcome.
  • Paragraph 3: Research question and institutional variable.
  • Paragraph 4: Data, period, and estimators.
  • Paragraph 5: Findings preview without overstating causality.
  • Paragraph 6: Roadmap of the paper.

Common mistake: beginning with broad trade theory rather than the specific empirical problem.

D.6 Literature Review

Suggested length: 900-1,200 words.

Organize the review around the paper’s design rather than listing papers one by one.

Recommended subsections:

  • Gravity foundations and structural gravity.
  • Estimation issues: OLS, fixed effects, PPML, and zeros.
  • Regional integration and trade agreements.
  • Literature specific to [region] or [policy variable].

Each paragraph should explain how the cited literature informs the current paper.

D.7 Data Section

Suggested length: 700-900 words.

Report:

  • Data source.
  • Countries included.
  • Years covered.
  • Unit of observation.
  • Dependent variable.
  • GDP and distance variables.
  • Institutional variables.
  • Sample restrictions.
  • Missing-value handling.
  • Zero-flow treatment.

Template:

The dataset is a directed dyad-year panel covering [N] exporters, [N] importers, and [years]. The dependent variable is [flow variable]. Economic size is measured using [GDP variables], and bilateral trade costs are proxied by [distance and controls]. The main institutional variable is [policy variable], coded as [definition].

Required data table:

Item Value
Observations [N]
Exporters [N]
Importers [N]
Years [range]
Zero-flow observations [N]
Positive-flow observations [N]

D.8 Methodology

Suggested length: 900-1,200 words.

Include the model sequence:

  1. Baseline OLS.
  2. Fixed-effects OLS.
  3. PPML.
  4. Robustness specification.

Baseline equation:

\[ \begin{aligned} \log X_{ijt} &= \beta_0 + \beta_1 \log GDP_{it} + \beta_2 \log GDP_{jt} \\ &\quad + \beta_3 \log D_{ij} + \gamma Z_{ijt} + \varepsilon_{ijt} \end{aligned} \]

PPML equation:

\[ \begin{aligned} E[X_{ijt} \mid Z_{ijt}] &= \exp\left( \beta_0 + \beta_1 \log D_{ij} + \gamma Z_{ijt} + FE \right) \end{aligned} \]

Explain why each estimator is included and what changes across specifications.

D.9 Results Section

Suggested length: 1,000-1,400 words.

Do not narrate every coefficient. Focus on the variables that answer the research question.

Recommended order:

  1. Baseline gravity results.
  2. Institutional coefficient.
  3. Fixed-effects changes.
  4. PPML changes.
  5. Economic significance.

Template:

The coefficient on [policy variable] is [positive/negative/unstable] across the main specifications. In the preferred model, the estimated coefficient is [coefficient], which corresponds to a conditional percent difference of [percent effect]. This association should be interpreted conditional on [controls and fixed effects].

D.10 Robustness Section

Suggested length: 700-1,000 words.

Robustness should test reasonable alternatives, not random model shopping.

Examples:

  • Alternative estimator.
  • Alternative fixed effects.
  • Alternative sample period.
  • Alternative trade-flow measure.
  • Excluding outliers.
  • Positive-flow versus zero-inclusive estimation.
  • Robust versus clustered standard errors.

Template:

The main result is robust across [specifications], but changes under [specification]. This difference likely reflects [sample, fixed-effect, or estimator reason]. The result should therefore be interpreted as [cautious interpretation].

D.11 Policy Discussion

Suggested length: 600-900 words.

Connect coefficients to mechanisms. Avoid treating formal membership as full implementation.

Discuss:

  • Trade costs.
  • Customs and logistics.
  • Infrastructure.
  • Institutional quality.
  • Short-run versus long-run adjustment.
  • Limits of causal interpretation.

Template:

The estimates suggest that [institution] is associated with [direction] bilateral trade conditional on the model controls. This pattern is consistent with [mechanism], but the estimates do not prove that membership alone caused the change. Implementation, infrastructure, and market conditions may condition the effect.

D.12 Conclusion

Suggested length: 400-600 words.

The conclusion should:

  • Restate the research question.
  • Summarize the main empirical pattern.
  • Explain the policy relevance.
  • Acknowledge limitations.
  • Identify one clear next step.

Avoid introducing new estimates or new literature in the conclusion.

D.13 Required Tables

Table Content
Table 1 Sample diagnostics and data coverage
Table 2 Descriptive statistics
Table 3 Top exporters and importers or trade concentration
Table 4 Main gravity results
Table 5 Robustness checks
Table 6 Coefficient comparison or preferred model summary

D.14 Required Figures

Figure Content
Figure 1 Distribution of trade flows
Figure 2 Top exporters or top importers
Figure 3 Trade versus distance or GDP product
Figure 4 Selected coefficient comparison or trade network

D.15 Reproducibility Checklist

  • Dataset path is documented.
  • Raw and cleaned files are distinguished.
  • Required variables are listed.
  • Sample restrictions are explicit.
  • Missing values are reviewed.
  • Zero-flow treatment is stated.
  • Python package versions are recorded.
  • Notebook runs from top to bottom.
  • Tables are generated from code.
  • Figures are generated from code.
  • Regression formulas match the paper.
  • Fixed effects are documented.
  • Standard errors are documented.
  • Convergence status is reported for PML models.

D.16 Submission Checklist

Submit:

  1. Final paper PDF.
  2. Reproducible Python notebook.
  3. Clean dataset or documented data-construction script.
  4. Presentation slides.
  5. Replication notes.

Before submission:

  • Confirm table numbers and captions.
  • Confirm figure numbers and captions.
  • Confirm all citations appear in the bibliography.
  • Confirm the paper does not claim causality unless the design supports it.
  • Confirm all placeholders have been replaced.
  • Confirm code and paper report the same sample size.